In its Global Economic Prospects report, which was released on 8 January, the Washington-based lender now expects the economy to grow by 0.9% in 2020 compared with the 1.5% it proffered in June 2019. BM. This is just the latest report showing the herculean task faced by President Cyril Ramaphosa to revive sluggish economic growth and make a dent in the unemployment rate of 29%, which is more than 35% when including discouraged job seekers. In addition to power supply constraints, the World Bank said SA’s weak economic growth outlook is due to “persistent policy uncertainty, constrained fiscal space, subdued business confidence… and weakening external demand, particularly from the Euro area and China.”, The World Bank sees the economy expanding by 1.3% in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022 – if Ramaphosa’s government is able to ramp up structural reforms and address policy uncertainty.
The World Bank’s economic growth forecast for 2020 is lower than the growth projected by the National Treasury (1.2%), credit rating agencies Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, which all expect the economy to expand by 1% over the same period. In the latest Regional Economic Outlook, the organisation projects -3% growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP in 2020, representing the worst outcome on record for the region. This will secure fiscal sustainability and build this economy better than before.”
If the economy expands by 0.9% in 2020 (as suggested by the World Bank), it will be the sixth consecutive year that population growth has outpaced economic growth. Adding to the gloom, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Business Confidence Index (BCI) crept up in December to 93.1 from 92.7 in November. See other economic growth forecasts here: The World Bank sees the economy expanding by 1.3% in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022 – if Ramaphosa’s government is able to ramp up structural reforms and address policy uncertainty. See other economic growth forecasts here: More of the same as 2020 economic growth outlook expected to flounder. Deputy Minister David Masondo is leading this initiative, and a technical team, headed by Dr Sean Phillips, will draw on expertise and capacity from the public and private sectors. thesouthafrican.com is a division of Blue Sky Publications Ltd. Reproduction without permission prohibited. Policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa now face the added challenge of rekindling their economies with fewer resources and more difficult choices,” says Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the African Department at the IMF in a blog post published on Thursday. The inflation-targeting bank halted its easing cycle even as it announced lower full-year GDP and price-growth forecasts. Eskom is in a dire financial position with insufficient revenue from electricity sales to service its R460-billion debt load and tariffs that do not allow it to recover all costs.
“However, countries in the region entered the crisis with significantly less fiscal space than they had prior to the global financial crisis of 2008-09. South Africans have experienced intermittent Stage 2 load shedding – cutting up to 2,000MW from the electricity grid – since 4 January and power cuts are set to continue until 10 January after Eskom experienced a further loss of generation capacity resulting in emergency electricity reserves being used during the daytime. This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. The World Bank has blamed rolling power cuts for the downgrade of its 2020 economic growth forecast as Eskom, which supplies virtually all SA’s power, struggles to keep the lights on. According to the National Treasury, the budget deficit will narrow from 15% in this financial year to 10.1% in 2021/22. TheSouthAfrican.com is all about South Africa and the stories that affect South Africans, wherever they are in the world. This will be achieved through a shift in expenditure from consumption towards capital investment. It believes the implementation of structural reforms that lower costs and increase public and private sector investments, growth and job creation, remains urgent. The World Bank’s 0.9% economic growth forecast in 2020 is below population growth of 1.6%, meaning South Africans, on average, will get poorer in 2020.
Small wonder that the World Bank revised its economic growth forecast lower, and that may yet prove to be optimistic, with load shedding already underway at this stage of the summer when factories, mines and other business operations are starting again after the holiday season. “[The region] faces additional financing needs of $890-billion through to 2023,” Selassie says. The reforms are expected to raise growth by 3% over the next 10 years. By Ray Mahlaka and Ed Stoddard• 10 January 2020, Statistics South Africa said on Thursday 9 January that the key manufacturing sector declined 3.6% on a year-on-year basis in November 2019 – before the advent of Stage 6 load shedding. Although Statistics SA is yet to publish official economic growth figures for 2019, the World Bank expects the economy to expand by 0.4%. Eskom is the biggest risk to SA’s economy and the country’s public finances. For all official information and updates regarding COVID-19, visit the South African Department of Health's website at www.sacoronavirus.co.za. A cat's kidneys are so effective they can process seawater and survive on a diet of meat alone. To prevent the loss of decades-worth of development gains, the region will need access to more grants, concessional credit and debt relief.”. This will ensure that implementation is well-coordinated, sequenced and timeous.”, #MTBPS2020: Operation Vulindlela is a critical coordination tool to unlock and fast track implementation of the structural economic reform agenda.-Minister @tito_mboweni pic.twitter.com/fCCUCbv7FQ, — South African Government (@GovernmentZA) October 28, 2020.
South Africa Economic Outlook Macroeconomic performance and outlook Real GDP grew at an estimated 0.7% in 2019, down from 0.8% in 2018, and is projected to rise to 1.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021 amid domestic and global downside risks. The World Bank said Eskom has worsened the government’s debt profile, as on-going bailouts of the power utility are expected to push the country’s debt-to-gross domestic product to 70% in the next three years – further weighing on investor sentiment. The textile and clothing sector slid 13.3%. In sub-Saharan Africa no such luxury exists, as countries struggle to do ‘whatever is possible’ with their scarce resources.”. Underscoring the fragility of the economy, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Thursday, 9 January that the key manufacturing sector declined 3.6% on a year-on-year basis in November 2019 – this was before the advent of Stage 6 load shedding – with nine of the 10 sub-sectors reporting contractions. Postal: Blue Sky Publications (Pty) Ltd T/A TheSouthAfrican, PO Box 44354, Claremont, 7735, South Africa, United Kingdom– Blue Sky Publications Ltd – Company Registration Number: 04683692. “We table a five-year fiscal consolidation pathway that promotes economic growth while bringing debt under control. However, these reforms are only expected to begin yielding results in the next few years. “Under that scenario, the region still faces a projected financing gap of $290-billion through to 2023.”, He adds: “No country should have to choose between paying their debt or providing food and medicine for their people. Address: Riverbank House, 1 Putney Bridge Approach, London, SW6 4TJ. “Countries in the region acted swiftly to protect their people from the worst of the crisis, but lockdown measures came with high economic and social costs. GDP growth sinks to -3% for 2020. COVID-19 related fiscal support in sub-Saharan Africa has averaged 3% of GDP – markedly less than what has been spent in other regions of the world,” Selassie observes. But, on a more positive note, growth in the region should rebound modestly in 2021 to 3.1%. “We forecast the South African economy to grow by 3.3% in 2021; 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. Copyright © Blue Sky Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved. “We forecast the South African economy to grow by 3.3% in 2021; 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. Mr President, by putting all our efforts into implementing the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan, we can accelerate growth to 3% or more. “Operation Vulindlela is a critical coordination tool to unlock and fast track implementation of the structural economic reform agenda. It believes the implementation of structural reforms that lower costs and increase public and private sector investments, growth and job creation, remains urgent. The fiscal measures realign the composition of our spending from consumption towards investment and support efforts to lower the cost of capital. 1st Floor, Block B, North Park, Black River Park, 2 Fir Street, Observatory, Cape Town, 7925, South Africa South Africa– Blue Sky Publications (Pty) Ltd T/A TheSouthAfrican Number: 2005/028472/07. SA’s economy has begun the year on a sour note, with the World Bank being the first financial institution to cut the country’s economic growth outlook to below 1% for 2020 due to the return of load shedding. However, for many countries a return to 2019 levels won’t occur until 2022-24. South Africa appears to be struggling to raise her annual growth rate towards the 5% or 6% mark that most economists regard as crucial to make faster progress towards MDG goals and to address the chronic problem of very high structural unemployment in the economy. South Africa's new Reconstruction and Recovery Plan should help unlock greater job creation and faster economic growth. Address: Regus Business Centre “Advanced economies have had the space to do ‘whatever it takes’.
The World Bank’s 0.9% economic growth forecast in 2020 is below population growth of 1.6%, meaning South Africans, on average, will get poorer in 2020. More of the same as 2020 economic growth outlook expected to flounder.
The 2019 average was the lowest since 1985, when apartheid South Africa was in the throes of sanctions and a state of emergency, SACCI economist Richard Downing told Business Maverick. In the latest Regional Economic Outlook, the organisation projects -3% growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP in 2020… Mixed reaction to Minister Mboweni’s budget: Protesters clash with police over COVID-19 restrictions in Barcelona, J&J plans to test its COVID-19 vaccine in ages 12-18 soon, Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in Parliament on Wednesday, Court to rule on Bushiri bail application, The Bushiris to spend another weekend in jail, Moyane to cross-examine Gordhan at State Capture Commission, Home Affairs to appeal halting of Bushiri’s retraction of permanent stay in SA, ECG Pastor Shepherd Bushiri and his wife are in South Africa illegally: Motsoaledi, Cele shuts down Sandton nightclub for violating lockdown rules, Former SABC News anchor Palesa Chubisi wants her dismissal to be set aside, Education department’s plan to recruit young people welcomed, ‘Top-up’ grant will no longer be paid: Sassa, Borders between SA, Botswana and Zim remain closed despite Level 1 regulations, Basic Education seeks other ways of dealing with social distancing, slates learner rotation system as ineffective, With election looming, US faces record surge of coronavirus cases, Britain considering imposition of new national lockdown measures- Times, Nigeria reaches out to US, South Korea to back WTO candidate, COVID tests should play bigger role in international travel – WHO expert.
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