Some economists have forecast that China's GDP growth rate is likely to pick up to above 5 percent following a strong rebound of 3.2 percent in the second quarter. "The story is less dire than we thought three months ago, but dire nonetheless," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said during a panel discussion that was held virtually. GDP in China is expected to reach 14000.00 USD Billion by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. The yuan was little changed near 6.7 per dollar, after briefly trading at its strongest in 18 months. “The data -- on balance -- suggest there is no urgency for the government to add fresh stimulus, though the window is not completely closed for a rate cut by year-end. Markets were mixed on the news. Much will also depend on how relations with the U.S. evolve after November’s presidential election. All Rights Reserved. Many economies have started to recover faster than anticipated after reopening from their lockdowns but with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, the global economy's ascent back to pre-pandemic levels remains prone to setbacks, the outlook said. Actions including sizeable and timely fiscal, monetary and regulatory responses have so far prevented a recurrence of the financial catastrophe of 2008-09, the report said, but pointed out the negative impacts of the pandemic will last. Heading into next year, whether the tax measures are extended will shape the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy. "The Chinese economy remains resilient with great potential. Both retail sales and industrial production gained momentum in September, reassuring markets that the recovery is intact. Services sectors including tourism, education and travel are continuing to lag. After the rebound in 2021, IMF said global growth is expected to slow to about 3.5 percent in the medium term, implying the growth till 2025 would be less than expected. All told, China's economy is expected to be worth about $14.6 trillion by the end of 2020, roughly equivalent to 17.5% of global GDP. The focus is still on targeted measures. Copyright © 2020 CGTN. China continues to be the only economy in the world to show positive growth in 2020 as its GDP is predicted to expand 1.9 percent this year, according to the latest economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday. “If you successfully handle the health crisis, your economy can recover.”. Continued recovery is anticipated which will benefit the global economy.”. Screenshot of IMF's World Economic Outlook. Strong import growth in the third quarter may have dented the GDP number, even though it’s broadly seen as a bullish sign for demand. Hu predicts 5.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, 15% in the first quarter of next year, for annual growth of 2% in 2020 and 8.5% in 2021. Beijing ICP prepared NO.16065310-3, China to be the only economy with positive growth in 2020, says IMF report, COVID-19 sends most G20 members into negative GDP growth, except China. That’s a rare positive for a global economy still clawing its way out of its worst slump since the Great Depression -- a revival further complicated by the resurgence of Covid-19 in Europe and the U.S. “It’s an encouraging and hopeful message for the rest of the world,” said Rob Subbaraman, global head of macro research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. "These are difficult times, yet there are some reasons to be hopeful," Gita Gopinath, IMF's economic counsellor and director of research, was quoted as saying in the outlook report, referring to progress made in treatments and vaccine trials. The numbers show China’s early and fierce containment of the virus has set the economy up for a faster rebound than any of its peers.
“That should not be viewed negatively,” said Liu Peiqian, China economist at Natwest Markets Plc in Singapore, because the strong import growth suggests the recovery in underlying economic growth is accelerating. Any worsening of trade frictions could throw a spanner in the export revival.
Copyright (C) 2005-2020 Record China. Also, the output in both advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies this year are forecast to remain below 2019 levels even next year, except for China, according to the report. Nearer term, the return in consumer confidence has set the economy up for a strong finish to the year, said Natwest’s Liu.
That export strength was offset by a recent increase in imports, depressing the contribution of net trade to output growth. Signage hangs at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., on April 14, 2020./VCG Photo.
Analysis of International Monetary Fund data shows the proportion of worldwide growth coming from China is expected to increase from 26.8% in 2021 to 27.7% in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations. Output expanded 0.7% in the year to date, meaning that the world’s second-largest economy has now regained all the ground it lost in the early months of the year.
But it is still the worst economic crisis since the 1930s Great Depression. In the long-term, the China GDP is projected to trend around 14600.00 “The economy is not entirely back in its strongest shape,” Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America, told Bloomberg Television.
Instead, the government has focused on targeted support for business and the central bank on keeping liquidity flowing; today’s readings suggest there’s no need to change tack.
◇中国のセブン-イレブン新店舗オープンに人殺到、台湾人が嘲笑するも「理由」があった―米華字メディア, 日本、GDP1～3月は年率換算で2．2％減、7月までのコロナ関連倒産310件―中国メディア.
Yet the recovery isn’t without its holes. Georgieva said governments needed to stay focused on their healthcare responses to the coronavirus and must not withdraw stimulus measures prematurely. The improving picture has come with relatively restrained government borrowing and central bank easing compared to China’s peers. “In general, the Chinese economy remains resilient with great potential. The IMF has upgraded its estimate for advanced economies for 2020 to a contraction of 5.8 percent, followed by a rebound in growth to 3.9 percent in 2021.
Gross domestic product expanded 4.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, missing economists’ forecast for a 5.5% expansion. “The services sector is not doing that well.”. Tech Rout Sends Stocks to Worst Week Since March: Markets Wrap, Record 200 Days With No Local Case Makes Taiwan World’s Envy, Walmart Pulls Guns Off Shelves as Precaution Ahead of Election, Apple Shares Decline After iPhone Sales Miss, China Drops 29%, U.S. Lifts Cruise Ship Ban; Deaths in France Surge: Virus Update.
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